Global food prices to rise 18% by 2027
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on AIP
Global prices for basic food products are expected to rise by 10% in 2026 and then 7% in 2027, for a cumulative increase of 18%, according to World Bank forecasts published on 28 October. The report links the rise to disruptions to grain supplies, El Niño risks and higher fuel and fertiliser prices.
Basic food prices are expected to rise by a total of 18% in 2026 and 2027, according to World Bank Group forecasts published on 28 October in its ‘Commodity Markets Outlook’ report. The increase is estimated at 10% in 2026, followed by 7% in 2027.
The World Bank links this rise to disruptions to grain supplies, risks to harvests from the El Niño climate phenomenon and higher fuel and fertiliser prices, which are increasing agricultural production costs. Fertiliser prices are expected to rise by 14% in 2026.
In an unfavourable scenario marked by an intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, further disruptions to grain shipments in the Black Sea and a severe El Niño episode, food prices could exceed baseline forecasts by 12% and surpass their 2022 levels. Brent crude would then reach an average of 105 dollars a barrel in 2027.
World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose believes that the accumulation of these shocks could worsen inflation and food insecurity while slowing growth, particularly in low-income countries. The forecast concerns food prices after the World Bank estimated a 23% rise in commodities in 2026, in a forecast of a rise in commodity prices published on 31 October.
