Copernicus forecasts 2026 as second hottest year, more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels

The world is heading for 2026 as the second hottest year ever recorded, behind 2024, driven by an exceptionally strong El Niño episode that amplifies human-caused warming, according to the European Copernicus service. The current year retains a 20% probability of matching or exceeding 2024 as the hottest year ever observed, Copernicus's monthly bulletin published on Friday said.

It is now "almost certain" that global temperatures in 2026 will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C, and the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 should also cross the threshold set by the Paris Agreement. October was the hottest October ever measured, with average surface air temperatures 1.75°C above those of the 1850-1900 period, the third consecutive month beyond 1.5°C.

"October continued the pattern of remarkable global warming, with record temperatures at the surface of the globe and the oceans," said Samantha Burgess, head of climate strategy at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus. "An exceptionally strong El Niño adds further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," she added.

The El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to peak later in the year and could become the strongest ever observed, set a temperature record last month in a key area of the Pacific. Forecasters believe it could help make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded. The bulletin is published as nations meet on Monday for COP31 in Turkey, after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, heatwaves in Europe and major fires in Indonesia.