Polls leave Johannesburg coalition uncertain
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on Daily Maverick
Polls conducted between June and October show that a stable coalition remains uncertain in Johannesburg, where the ANC and the Democratic Alliance hold the main keys to municipal negotiations. The metropolitan configuration could influence coalitions in Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, Mogale City and Rustenburg, according to the Daily Maverick.
Six polls conducted between mid-June and mid-October put the Democratic Alliance (DA) ahead in voting intentions in Johannesburg, except in Ipsos's first survey, the Daily Maverick reports. In three of these surveys, the DA garnered at least 35% of voting intentions and led the ANC by at least 13 percentage points.
The results nevertheless vary according to the method used. In the News24/Sabi poll, the DA received 29.2% of voting intentions, but reached 39.6% after adding 14% of respondents who said they were not ready to vote for it but considered this possibility fairly likely; the ANC then rose to 19.7%. The six surveys were conducted by Ipsos, The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation, News24/Sabi and eNCA/Markdata, with different sample sizes and questions.
The formation of a stable majority will depend on negotiations conducted by the ANC under the authority of its secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and on decisions by the DA's federal executive. Without an agreement between the two main parties, the available results leave the formation of a lasting coalition in Johannesburg uncertain, according to the Daily Maverick.
This uncertainty extends the projections published on 29 October concerning the ANC's possible decline in the city. The elements of this development are presented in South Africa's municipal elections in Johannesburg.
