South African local elections could cost ANC ground in Johannesburg
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on Mail & Guardian
South African local elections could weaken the ANC in Johannesburg, where polls put it below 30%, and keep the Democratic Alliance in power in Cape Town. Coalition negotiations could prove decisive after the vote, according to analysts cited by the Mail & Guardian.
Polls cited by electoral analyst Michael Atkins put the ANC below the 30% mark in Johannesburg, which could complicate its representation on the municipal council after South Africa’s local elections. Atkins told the Mail & Guardian that the party could win up to five more ward seats than proportional-representation seats, with no councillors elected through the latter category.
A MarkData poll cited by Sethulego Matebesi, a sociology professor at the University of the Free State, puts the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 35% in Johannesburg, compared with 21.8% for the ANC. Matebesi noted that surveys can be poor predictors of turnout, which is often low in local elections.
In Johannesburg, the DA’s mayoral candidate, Helen Zille, has ruled out a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe party. According to the projections cited, the DA and ActionSA, on 10%, would not reach a majority on their own. An alliance with the ANC could make it possible to govern, but would be politically costly for both parties; a coalition with several smaller parties would depend in particular on a rapprochement between Zille and ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba.
In Tshwane, several surveys also put the DA in the lead, while parties debate municipal alliances (polls in Tshwane, disagreements over coalitions).
