UNEP says 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded but could be restored by 2100
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on Tchadinfos
The United Nations Environment Programme says exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is imminent, but returning below the limit by 2100 remains possible. Its scenario forecasts peak warming of 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century and a 69% cut in global emissions by 2040, according to its report published on 21 October 2026.
Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement is now “imminent and inevitable”, but returning below this level by 2100 remains possible, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says in its 17th Emissions Gap Report, published on Wednesday 21 October.
Under the “lowest possible overshoot” scenario, warming would peak at between 1.7°C and 1.8°C around the middle of the century before falling back to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with a probability of about 50%. Global emissions would then need to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025, according to UNEP.
This trajectory would also require the removal of about 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere using carbon-removal technologies. Full implementation of current national contributions would reduce emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035, leading to warming of 2.6°C in 2100, compared with 2.8°C if current policies continue without acceleration.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that “overshoot is not capitulation”. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree and every additional year above 1.5°C would worsen climate impacts. The report calls for faster moves away from fossil fuels, the deployment of renewable energy and cuts in methane emissions ahead of COP31, due to take place in Antalya, Turkey.
