Strong El Niño forecast to bring extreme rainfall through 2027
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on SABC News
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts a very intense El Niño episode, with heat and extreme weather events through 2027. The global average temperature from January to September 2026 reached 1.47°C above the pre-industrial era, while southern Africa is expected to have a warmer season, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts major changes in rainfall patterns in several regions of the world due to a very strong El Niño episode, with warmer conditions in southern Africa between November 2026 and January 2027. The forecast, produced using several international climate models, comes as the global average temperature from January to September 2026 reached 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level, according to the WMO.
The Niño3.4 region of the Pacific is recording an ocean temperature 3.4°C above normal, according to data from the Climate Reanalyzer platform of the Institute for Climate Change. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo believes that the heat accumulated in the ocean provides more energy that could be released by El Niño.
The WMO also says that the past 12 years have been the warmest ever recorded. Celeste Saulo also cited extreme heatwaves as well as ice and rock collapses and flash floods in Nepal among the risks observed in 2026.
The El Niño forecast comes as the UN warns of a new era of climate extremes in 2026, published on 9 November 2026.
