Debt service to absorb 71.7% of Nigerian revenue in 2030
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on Daily Trust
Illustrative image · Monstera Production · Pexels · Licence PexelsNigeria's debt service is expected to reach 71.7% of government revenue in 2030, up from 51% in 2026, according to the Debt Management Office's debt sustainability analysis. The ratio could rise to 97.3% under an adverse shock scenario, according to the report published on Monday.
Nigeria's debt service-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 71.7% in 2030, up from 60.6% in 2024, exceeding the 50% threshold recommended by the Debt Management Office (DMO), according to its 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis report published on Monday. The DMO forecasts a gradual rise in the ratio after it fell to 44.9% in 2025 and 51% in 2026.
The ratio is then expected to reach 57.1% in 2027, 57.4% in 2028 and 67.3% in 2029. Under a shock scenario involving a 30% depreciation of the exchange rate, a 2% decline in real GDP and a 2.5% decrease in revenue, it could reach 97.3% in 2030, according to the DMO.
Domestic debt servicing amounted to 5.28 trillion naira in the first half of 2026, compared with 8.61 trillion naira spent throughout 2025, Daily Trust reports. Despite this pressure on public finances, the report forecasts that the public debt-to-GDP ratio would fall from 53.7% in 2024 to 27.3% in 2030 under its baseline scenario, notably due to projected average real growth of 4.8%.
The DMO attributes the deterioration in the debt service-to-revenue ratio to debt service costs rising faster than government revenue, pointing to weak revenue mobilisation.
