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WMO forecasts unprecedented El Niño, up to +3.8°C

By , based on The Times Group

WMO forecasts unprecedented El Niño, up to +3.8°CIllustrative image · Mwesigwa Joel · Pexels · Licence Pexels

The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could exceed the average by 3.8°C between November 2026 and January 2027. According to its Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, its effects will be felt well after the peak, with a risk of drought or flooding for Malawi’s 2026-2027 farming season, according to The Times Group.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the epicentre of the El Niño phenomenon, could exceed the average by 3.8°C between November 2026 and January 2027. The WMO declares an El Niño when this anomaly reaches 0.5°C. According to the WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, the phenomenon will peak towards the end of 2026, but its effects will be felt long after.

In Malawi, the Development Department of the CCAP Livingstonia Synod (Soldev) is calling for urgent action to close the funding gap for El Niño preparedness. According to authorities, 163.7 billion kwacha has been raised of the 488.5 billion needed for the preparedness plan. Its executive director, Edward Kamthunzi, believes response plans exist but the funds to implement them have not been obtained, and calls for the rapid establishment of social protection and subsidy programmes.

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