IEA forecasts global oil surplus in fourth quarter
By the AFREEQUE newsroom, based on Punch
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, after a surplus from October, the first since the start of the war in Iran. Gulf deliveries reached 18.4 million barrels per day, still 26% below their pre-war level, according to its monthly report cited by Punch.
Oil exports from Gulf countries reached 18.4 million barrels per day in October, 26% below their level before the war in Iran, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The increase in shipments helped create a surplus on the global market in October, the first since the start of the war, Punch reports.
Global oil supply increased by 3 million barrels per day in September, then by 2.3 million in October, according to the IEA. The agency also forecasts a decline in global demand of 2.7 million barrels per day over the year as a whole, amid high prices and accelerating electrification and improved energy efficiency of vehicles.
The situation nevertheless remains tight for refined products. Diesel traded at $180 per barrel in October, about 77% higher than before the war, while Iranian strikes on Gulf refineries and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities are disrupting supplies, according to the IEA.
